Granite State Governor’s Race Down to the Wire
10/31/2024
With less than a week until the general election, Vice President Kamala Harris slightly leads former President Donald Trump in the Granite State, 50% to 43%, respectively, according to the latest UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov poll released Thursday.
“The results of the poll show good news for the Harris campaign,” said political science Assistant Professor Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, associate director of the Center for Public Opinion. “New Hampshire is a necessary state in her path to 270 electoral votes and she holds an apparent lead.”
Unlike in other states, New Hampshire residents rate the two candidates closely on issues where Trump is considered strongest nationwide.
- 47% of respondents said Harris would handle economic policy better than Trump (46%)
- 46% of respondents said Trump would handle immigration policy better than Harris (45%)
Conversely, more respondents say Harris would do a better job handing the abortion issue than Trump, 57% to 31%, with 6% saying the candidates are about even and 6% unsure.
Indecision was low among the 600 likely voters surveyed as no other candidate received more than 1% support from respondents to the poll, while 4% say they are undecided.
A poll released Oct. 17 by UMass Lowell found Harris had a slight lead in New Hampshire with 50% saying they would support Harris and 41% saying they would vote for Trump. In that poll, no other candidate received more than 1% support from respondents in that survey, while 6% said they were undecided.
Simultaneous polls were released Thursday outlining the perspectives of likely voters in Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Complete data, including state race information, can be found at uml.edu/polls.
New Hampshire Governor’s Race
Nearly half of respondents (45%) support former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte while 43% support former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig in a close race for the Granite State’s governorship. Support for Stephen Villee stands at 3% of respondents, while 1% say they are voting for another candidate and 8% are undecided.
“Kelly Ayotte is running the race she expected to run in 2016, managing her image and pulling votes from Democrats and independents looking for a moderate manager to mind the Granite State,” said political science Associate Professor John Cluverius, the Center for Public Opinion’s director of survey research. “Despite her bid to avoid New Hampshire looking like Massachusetts, she’s running a campaign that looks a lot like successful Republican efforts in the state’s more Democratic neighbor to the south.”
More residents have made up their minds and support has grown for Ayotte since the Oct. 17 UMass Lowell and YouGov poll found 42% of respondents said they were voting for Ayotte while 41% said they were voting for Craig. In that prior poll, 3% of respondents said they would support Stephen Villee, 1% said they would vote for another candidate and 14% were undecided.
Additional questions in the poll covered attitudes about the economy, abortion, foreign policy and a host of New Hampshire-centered topics.
Poll findings issued Thursday are the result of an online-based survey conducted, Thursday, Oct. 10, through Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024, that carries a margin of error of plus/minus 4.38 percentage points.
The nonpartisan poll was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell. The survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.
UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion presents events and polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.
Media Contacts:
Emily Gowdey-Backus, director of media relations
Nancy Cicco, assistant director of media relations