Poll: Trump, Harris Nearly Tied in Keystone State as Presidential Election Nears

10/17/2024

The race is close between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov findings released Thursday. Harris stands at 46% while Trump is at 45% among the 800 Pennsylvania likely voters surveyed.

“With less than three weeks until Election Day, the race in Pennsylvania is essentially tied,” said UMass Lowell political science Assistant Professor Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, the Center for Public Opinion’s associate director.

“It is increasingly clear the election will be decided by the candidate who is able to successfully mobilize their voters Nov. 5 and during the early voting period,” he added.

No other candidate received more than 1% support from respondents, while 6% said they were undecided. 

One sign the race remains so close in Pennsylvania is the favorability of the two candidates. The latest results show:

• 44% of respondents have a favorable view of Harris while 50% say they view her unfavorably
• 42% of respondents view Trump favorably while 53% view him unfavorably

Thursday’s findings are largely consistent with a similar UMass Lowell/YouGov poll of likely Pennsylvania voters published Sept. 26, which positioned Harris at 48% support and Trump at 46%. 

The tight Pennsylvania race is emphasized by the results of a simultaneous Center for Public Opinion poll surveying likely New Hampshire voters. There, Harris holds a 9-point lead over Trump, 50% to 41%. Complete data, including the race for New Hampshire governor’s race, can be found at uml.edu/polls.

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Race
Democrat U.S Sen. Bob Casey Jr. leads Republican businessman David McCormick in the race for U.S. Senate, 48% to 39%. No other candidate received support from more than 1% of respondents, and 10% are undecided.

The 9-point gap is the same as the result of the Sept. 26 UMass Lowell/YouGov poll, where 47% supported Casey and 38% supported McCormick.

“As we see more respondents making up their minds in the Senate race, Casey seems to be solidifying his lead,” said John Cluverius, UMass Lowell political science associate professor and Center for Public Opinion director of survey research. “If this were a drag race, Casey needs to keep his wheel straight and not flame out while McCormick needs to floor it and say a prayer.”

Additional questions in the poll covered attitudes about the economy, abortion, foreign policy, Taylor Swift, Gritty, cheesesteaks and a host of other Pennsylvania-centered topics.

Poll findings issued Thursday are the result of an online-based survey conducted, Wednesday, Oct. 2, through Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024, that carries a margin of error of plus/minus 3.97 percentage points. 

The nonpartisan poll was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell. The survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.

UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion presents events and polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.