Poll: Trump, Harris Essentially Tied in North Carolina

10/31/2024

The latest UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov poll shows a tight race for president in North Carolina. With less than a week until the general election, former President Donald Trump is about even with Vice President Kamala Harris at 47% and 45%, respectively.

“Given survey results on voter intention and candidate attributes, the election could go in any direction,” said political science Assistant Professor Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, associate director of the Center for Public Opinion. “The outcome will likely depend on the strength of each party’s get-out-the-vote mobilization efforts.”

Poll results emphasize just how split the state is on the two candidates:

• More respondents rate Trump as better able to handle the economy than Harris, 49% to 41%
• More respondents rate Trump as better able to handle immigration policy than Harris, 52% to 39% 
• More respondents rate Harris as better able to handle abortion policy than Trump, 50% to 37%

Indecision was low among the 650 Tar Heel State residents surveyed as no other candidate received support from more than 1% of respondents and 4% said that they are undecided. 

Simultaneous polls were released Thursday outlining the perspectives of likely voters in New Hampshire, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Complete data, including state race information, can be found at uml.edu/polls.

North Carolina Governor’s Race
With 12% of respondents undecided, Democrat Josh Stein holds a lead at 48% over Republican Mark Robinson (36%) in the race for North Carolina governor. 

“It wouldn’t be a presidential year in North Carolina without a scandal, and this year’s scandal in the governor’s race has turned a winnable election into a disaster for Mark Robinson,” said political science Associate Professor John Cluverius, Center for Public Opinion director of survey research. “It’s been more than a decade since Republicans abolished straight-ticket voting, and this year it’s coming back to haunt them.”

No other candidate received more than 2% support from poll respondents. 

Additional questions in the poll covered attitudes about the economy, abortion and foreign policy among other topics. 

Poll findings issued Thursday are the result of an online-based survey conducted, Wednesday, Oct. 16, through Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024, that carries a margin of error of plus/minus 4.2 percentage points. 

The nonpartisan poll was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell. The survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.

UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion presents events and polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.