Poll: Trump, Harris Close in Michigan’s Presidential Race

10/31/2024

With less than a week until the general election, Vice President Kamala Harris is in a tight race with former president Donald Trump in the Great Lakes State at 49% and 45%, respectively, according to the latest UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov poll released Thursday.

"The presidential race in Michigan is very close, but there are positive signs for the Harris campaign,” said political science Assistant Professor Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, associate director of the Center for Public Opinion. “Likely voters in Michigan view Trump more negatively than Harris, suggesting a more favorable environment for her campaign as Election Day approaches.”

One sign the race in Michigan may favor Harris is that voters rate her much better on her strongest issues, while only slightly favoring Trump on his. When asked who would better handle immigration policy, slightly more respondents picked Trump (50%) over Harris (42%) while many more respondents said Harris (57%) would handle abortion policy better than Trump (32%). 

Indecision was low among the 600 likely voters surveyed as no other candidate received support from more than 1% of respondents and 2% said that they are undecided. 

A previous poll from UMass Lowell, published Sept. 26, had Harris slightly ahead of Trump, 48% to 43%, respectively, among Michigan voters. In that poll, no other candidate received more than 2% support from respondents in that survey, while 3% of respondents said they were undecided. 

Simultaneous polls were released Thursday outlining the perspectives of likely voters in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Complete data, including state race information, can be found at uml.edu/polls.

Michigan U.S. Senate Race
Democrat Elissa Slotkin remains ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in the race for U.S. Senate at 48% to 39%. 

“Slotkin appears to be in the driver’s seat for this race,” said political science Associate Professor John Cluverius, Center for Public Opinion director of survey research. “In a time when we’re taught to expect the unexpected, Rogers still has a chance, but that opportunity is slipping further and further away.” 

No other candidate received more than 2% support from respondents, 8% of respondents are undecided, and 1% said that they had already voted but did not cast a vote for U.S. Senate. 

An earlier Michigan poll released by UMass Lowell showed similar support for Slotkin. Nearly half (47%) of respondents supported Slotkin while 34% supported Rogers. All third-party and independent candidates in that poll received 1% or less support among likely voters and 15% of likely voters were undecided. 

Additional questions in Thursday’s poll covered attitudes about the economy, abortion, foreign policy and Michigan-centric topics including Diana Ross and Kid Rock.

Poll findings issued Thursday are the result of an online-based survey conducted, Wednesday, Oct. 16, through Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024, that carries a margin of error of plus/minus 4.49 percentage points. 

The nonpartisan poll was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell. The survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.

UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion presents events and polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.