Pennsylvania Voters Favor Casey in Senate Race
09/26/2024
Less than six weeks out from Election Day, Pennsylvania voters are about even on their support for former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the latest UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov findings released Thursday.
Harris stands at 48% while Trump is at 46% among the 800 Pennsylvania likely voters surveyed.
“The presidential race remains very close in Pennsylvania with the coming weeks a crucial time for both campaigns,” said Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, UMass Lowell political science assistant professor and Center for Public Opinion associate director. “As can be expected in a highly competitive race with few undecided voters, get-out-the-vote strategies will become increasingly important to mobilize supporters and ensure they go to the polls on Election Day.”
No other candidate on the ballot received more than 1% of support from respondents in the survey, while 4% reported remaining undecided.
UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion simultaneously polled likely voters in Michigan finding Harris slightly led Trump 48% to 43%. Complete data, including the race for Michigan’s U.S. Senate representation, can be found at uml.edu/polls.
Results show both candidates benefitting from the support of confident voters but the idea of switching is always a possibility. The poll found 4% of Trump voters say they could change their mind and vote for another candidate while 7% of Harris voters felt similarly.
Despite the close race, Trump remains unpopular among likely voters while perception of Harris varies.
- 47% of respondents have a favorable view of Harris while 48% say they view her unfavorably
- 43% of respondents view Trump favorably while 54% view him unfavorably
Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Race
With the support of 47% of poll respondents, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. leads David McCormick (38%) in the Pennsylvania race for U.S. Senate.
“The U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania is a very different animal than the presidential race,” said John Cluverius, UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion director of survey research and associate professor of political science. “Casey looks strong going into the final weeks, but a lot of voters are still undecided.”
Poll findings show 13% of likely Pennsylvania voters remain undecided.
“With this many unsure, McCormick needs to both firm up his base and try to persuade whatever voters he can to vote for him, and that’s a lot to do in less than six weeks,” said Cluverius.
All third-party and independent candidates received 1% or less support among likely voters.
Additional questions in the poll covered attitudes about the economy, abortion, foreign policy, Taylor Swift, Gritty, cheesesteaks and a host of other Pennsylvania-centered topics.
Poll findings issued Thursday are the result of an online-based survey conducted, Wednesday, Sept. 11, through Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, that carries a margin of error of plus/minus 4.0 percentage points.
The nonpartisan poll was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell. The survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.
UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion presents events and polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.
Media contacts: Emily Gowdey-Backus, director of media relations and Nancy Cicco, assistant director of media relations