In Senate Race, Michigan Voters Favor Slotkin
09/26/2024
Less than 50 days from the election, Vice President Kamala Harris is enjoying a five-point slight lead over former President Donald Trump in Michigan, according to the latest UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov poll.
“For a swing state, this margin is good news for the vice president’s campaign,” said Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, UMass Lowell political science assistant professor and Center for Public Opinion associate director.
UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion simultaneously polled likely voters in Pennsylvania finding Harris and Trump remain close at 48% and 46%, respectively. Complete data, including the race for U.S. Senate representation, can be found at uml.edu/polls.
With high certainty among the Michigan poll’s 650 likely general election voters – indecision was tallied in the low single digits for supporters of both candidates (Trump, 6%; Harris, 4%) – these numbers are unlikely to fluctuate much between now and Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5, added Castro Cornejo.
If Trump wants to beat this margin, he has an uphill battle to fight in the Great Lakes State. “The Trump campaign,” added Castro Cornejo, “has a negative favorability in Michigan that needs to be overcome if they want to remain competitive in the state.”
Despite the close race, Trump remains unpopular among likely voters while perception of Harris is even.
- 47% of respondents have a favorable view of Harris and 47% say they view her unfavorably
- 41% of respondents view Trump favorably while 56% view him unfavorably
Those with no opinion of Harris came in at 5% and no respondents reported never having heard of her. Just three percent said they had no opinion of Trump and no respondents reported never having heard of him.
In total, no other presidential candidate on the ballot received more than 2% support from respondents in the survey, while 3% said they are undecided.
Michigan U.S. Senate Race
Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan race for U.S. Senate, according to Thursday’s Center for Public Opinion poll. Support for Slotkin came in at 47%, while 34% support Rogers.
“Voters in the Michigan Senate race are favoring Slotkin, but with almost one of every eight voters undecided, this race is still anyone’s game,” said John Cluverius, UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion director of survey research and associate professor of political science.
All third-party and independent candidates for the Michigan U.S. Senate race tallied 1% or less support among likely voters, and 15% of likely voters are undecided.
Additional questions in Thursday’s poll covered attitudes about the economy, abortion, foreign policy and Michigan-centric topics including Diana Ross, Kid Rock and the Great Lakes.
Poll findings issued Thursday are the result of an online-based survey conducted, Wednesday, Sept. 11, through Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024, that carries a margin of error of plus/minus 4.37 percentage points.
The nonpartisan poll was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell. The survey was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including topline and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.
UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion presents events and polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.
Media contacts: Emily Gowdey-Backus, director of media relations and Nancy Cicco, assistant director of media relations