Latest N.H. Tracking Poll: Trump Leads GOP, Cruz and Rubio

02/02/2016

Detailed poll results are available at www.uml.edu/polls. 

UMass Lowell representatives are available for interviews about today’s poll results. 

Contact: Christine Gillette, 978-758-4664 (c), 978-934-2209 (w), Christine_Gillette@uml.edu 

The second-day of results from the UMass Lowell/7News tracking poll of 1,400 New Hampshire voters who were surveyed about candidates in the Feb. 9 Democratic and Republican primaries include: 

• Donald Trump, at 38 percent support among likely voters, continues to lead all candidates in the Republican primary, but 44 percent of Republicans polled reported that they could still change their mind before Feb. 9. Voters who support Trump remain the most sure of their choice at 69 percent, but this is down from 72 percent in yesterday’s tracking poll results. Support for other GOP candidates is less firm with half or more of voters who favor candidates including Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Rand Paul saying they could change their minds. 
• The GOP field also saw some movement since yesterday, with Trump’s nearest rivals Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio each gaining two points among likely Republican primary voters polled. Cruz, who won yesterday’s Iowa caucus, is at 14 percent and Rubio is at 10 percent. John Kasich and Jeb Bush are tied at 9 percent, Chris Christie is at 5 percent, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina at 3 percent and Rand Paul at 2 percent. Mike Huckabee, who has suspended his campaign, had zero percent among voters polled. 
• In the Democratic primary race, Bernie Sanders continues to lead Hillary Clinton 63 to 30 percent, and Martin O’Malley, who has suspended his campaign, received only 1 percent of support. Democrats polled are more certain about their choices, with only 19 percent of Sanders’ supporters and 21 percent of voters who favor Clinton saying they could change their mind before the Feb. 9 primary. Sanders, who is 74 years old, continues to hold the support of young voters, 91 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds. 
• When asked who they believe will be the next president, 24 percent of all voters polled said Trump, 23 percent said Clinton and 17 percent said Sanders. That is a slight change over yesterday’s results, when Clinton was first with the same 23 percent, but Trump was at 22 percent and Sanders at 16 percent. 
• The majority of polling for today’s results was completed before the outcomes of the Iowa caucuses were known, so this represents a pre-Iowa benchmark in New Hampshire and the effects of the Iowa vote will be seen in tomorrow’s poll results. 

Detailed analysis of today’s results along with full polling data, including methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls. 

Each night through Feb. 7, the UMass Lowell/7NEWS tracking poll is asking New Hampshire voters, including likely Democratic and Republican primary voters, about who they plan to vote for, how firm they are on that choice and who they think will be the next president be. Poll results are being released daily at 7 a.m. from Monday, Feb. 1 through Monday, Feb. 8. 

Results of the poll being reported today are based on interviews with a random sample of 1,412 New Hampshire registered voters and a sub-sample of 443 Democratic primary likely voters and 470 Republican primary likely voters. Data was collected via live interviewers via landline and cellular telephones over the last three nights. The survey used a probability-based, random-digit-dial methodology with a dual-frame design for landline and cellular telephone surveys conducted by live interviewers. Final results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies based on the American Community Survey for New Hampshire. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.95 percent for all registered voters, plus or minus 5 percent for likely Republican primary voters and plus or minus 5.3 percent for likely Democratic primary voters. 

The independent, nonpartisan poll was conducted by UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion in partnership with 7News. More than 12,000 UMass Lowell graduates, students and employees are New Hampshire residents. The Center for Public Opinion hosts programs and conducts polls on political, social, economic and cultural issues to provide real-world opportunities for civic engagement, research and experiential learning to the campus and the community. 

UMass Lowell is a national research university located on a high-energy campus in the heart of a global community. The university offers its 17,500 students bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral degrees in business, education, engineering, fine arts, health, humanities, sciences and social sciences. UMass Lowell delivers high-quality educational programs, vigorous hands-on learning and personal attention from leading faculty and staff, all of which prepare graduates to be ready for work, for life and for all the world offers. www.uml.edu